NCJ Number
231409
Date Published
December 2009
Length
12 pages
Annotation
This study examined whether reducing the rate at which prisoners return to custody in Australia could reduce the number and costs of the prison population.
Abstract
The study found that modest reductions in the rate at which offenders are re-imprisoned would result in substantial reductions in the inmate population and correctional costs. Comparable reductions in the number of new sentenced prisoners also produced benefits, but they are smaller. The potential benefits of reducing the rate of re-imprisonment among Indigenous offenders is particularly significant; for example, a 10-percent reduction in re-imprisonment would reduce the Indigenous sentenced prisoner population by an estimated 365 inmates, producing an estimated yearly savings of just over $10 million. On the other hand, a 10-percent reduction in the rate at which new Indigenous sentenced prisoners are admitted to custody would reduce the Indigenous sentenced prisoner population by only 166 inmates. The mathematical model used for this analysis is similar to the approach used by Blumstein and his colleagues (1969, 1971, and 1973). They were among the first to propose that the criminal justice system could be modeled as a feedback system. Their simplest model assumed that the number of people in the criminal justice system at any given time was the sum of those arriving in the system for the first time and those returning to the system after a delay. In order to calculate the number in the system at any given time, rates of return were assumed to be unrelated to the length of time spent in the system. The structure of the model used in the current study is described in detail, along with data sources, parameter estimation, and model testing. 8 figures, 3 tables, 7 notes, 22 references, and appended equations used in the mathematical model