Probabilistic Models of Youthful Criminal Careers

• NCJ Number: 106000
• Journal: Criminology Volume: 25 Issue: 1 Dated: (February 1987) Pages: 83-107
• Author(s): A Barnett; A Blumstein; D P Farrington
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 25 pages
• Grant Number(s): 83-IJ-CX-0048
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This paper analyzes probabilistic models of juvenile to adult criminal careers using data from a 1961-1962 London cohort of 411 males followed from their first conviction to age 25.

Abstract

It was found that these criminal careers could be modeled with parameters reflecting constant individual rates of offending and constant probability of career termination; population heterogeneity could be adequately represented by two distinct groups -- designated as frequents and occasionals. In the London cohort, the frequents were estimated to have an annual conviction rate of 1.14 (constant with age) and a probability of career termination of .10 following each conviction. The occasionals had an annual conviction rate of .41 and a termination probability of .33 following each conviction. The frequents were estimated to comprise 43 percent of the population; the occasionals, 57 percent. While this parsimonious model structure was adequate for this sample, it requires testing with other offender populations. 7 tables and calculations are appended. 13 references. (Author abstract modified)