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Probabilities and Odds in Hot Pursuit: A Benefit-Cost Analysis

NCJ Number
158822
Journal
Journal of Criminal Justice Volume: 23 Issue: 5 Dated: (1995) Pages: 417-424
Author(s)
R E Crew Jr; L A Fridell; K Pursell
Date Published
1995
Length
8 pages
Annotation
This article provides a cost-benefit assessment of pursuits initiated for five separate reasons, using data from the state of Minnesota.
Abstract
The article calculates the probabilities and odds that each pursuit type will result in an arrest and that damages, injuries, and deaths will occur during the pursuit. It develops a pursuit trade-off ratio for use in specifying the cost effectiveness of each type of pursuit. The article also discusses the usefulness of the analysis for pursuit policymaking. The analysis supports the general logic employed by police departments that permit some, but not all, types of offenders to be pursued. It demonstrates that the cost-benefit ratios in some kinds of chases are better than those in other chases. For example, chases originating for felonies and for other reasons are likely to produce poorer overall results than pursuits for traffic. However, the relative value of capturing a felon compared to a traffic violator is not incorporated into the benefits portion of the measure. Neither does the cost-benefit equation consider the deterrent value of pursuits. The article includes a model for empirically evaluating some of the major costs and benefits of pursuits and results from the application of that model to the pursuits undertaken in the state of Minnesota during a 5-year period. Notes, references

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