PROBLEMS WITH THE USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN PREDICTION STUDIES

• NCJ Number: 34749
• Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Dated: (JANUARY 1976) Pages: 64-81
• Author(s): J PALMER; P CARLSON
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 18 pages
• Corporate Author: National Council on Crime and Delinquency
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS ARTICLE REVIEWS THE BASIC ASSUMPTIONS WHICH MUST BE MET BEFORE LINEAR REGRESSION TECHNIQUES CAN BE APPLIED WITH MAXIMUM EFFECTIVENESS IN PREDICTIVE CRIMINAL JUSTICE RESEARCH.

Abstract

STARTING WITH AN INTUITIVE EXPLANATION OF SIMPLE REGRESSION, THE ARTICLE PROCEEDS TO A DISCUSSION OF MORE COMPLEX MODELS WHICH HAVE APPLICATIONS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE RESEARCH. USING THIS DISCUSSION AS A BACKGROUND, IT IS SHOWN THAT LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WHICH PREDICT EVENTS WITH ONLY TWO OUTCOMES VIOLATE TWO BASIC ASSUMPTIONS. SEVERAL ALTERNATIVE METHODS OF DEALING WITH THIS PROBLEM ARE EXAMINED, AND ONE METHOD, A MULTIVARIATE LOGISTIC MODEL, IS USED TO ESTIMATE THE PROBABILITY OF RECIDIVISM BASED ON DATA PROVIDED BY THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT)