NCJ Number
101102
Journal
Journal of Quantiative Criminology Volume: 1 Issue: 4 Dated: (December 1985) Pages: 387-416
Date Published
1985
Length
30 pages
Annotation
This paper presents a set of projections for U.S. Index property and violent crimes that it feels are superior to other estimates because age-specific rates are used and cohort effects included.
Abstract
A three-step procedure is used. First, the age-specific crime rates are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects. Then the period and cohort effects are characterized using regression and transfer functions, respectively. Finally, these statistical models are applied to generate forecasts of the period and cohort effects and hence forecasted values of the age-specific crime rates. The remarkable fit of the age, period, and cohort model to the data and the fairly accurate predictions for the 1978-81 period confirm the model's accuracy. The forecasts show a slight decline in property crime in 1982 followed by a gradual upward trend through the 1990's. The violent crime predictions show only an upward trend, although it is smaller than for property crimes. Tables, formula, and approximately 30 references. (Author abstract modified)