NCJ Number
101014
Date Published
1984
Length
23 pages
Annotation
This study forecasts the Texas prison population for 1984-90 and constructs various prison population scenarios by changing the percentage of prison capacity to be maintained or establishing a constant average length of prison stay.
Abstract
Data were obtained for the Texas population by age for 1970-80 and population estimates for 1980-90. Data also covered unemployment rates for 1970-83 and projected unemployment estimates for 1984-85. Information on the number of convictions, probations, and probation revocations were secured from the Court Administration Annual Reports for 1970-82. The Texas Department of Corrections records yielded statistics on admissions and existing inmate populations. Multiple regression analysis indicates that over 80 percent of the projected admission variance is due to changes in the age composition of the State population. The unemployment rate accounts for approximately 12 percent of the variance. Results project a stabilization in prison admissions over the next few years. For the prison population to remain constant, the number of releasees must equal the number of admissions. Since revocations are a function of the number released, there will be an increase in the proportion of revocation admissions compared to total yearly admissions, even if the revocation rate remains constant. Tabular data and 11-item bibliography.