PROPERTY CRIME AND THE RETURNS TO LEGITIMATE AND ILLEGITIMATE ACTIVITIES - TECHNICAL REPORT

• NCJ Number: 59664
• Author(s): ANON
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 48 pages
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: Hoover Institution
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS ECONOMETRIC MODEL RELATES EXPECTED MONETARY RETURNS FROM LEGITIMATE AND ILLEGITIMATE ACTIVITIES TO LABOR FORCE SUPPLY AND PROPERTY CRIME LEVEL; IT IS APPLIED TO CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICY DECISIONMAKING.

Abstract

THE MODEL IS BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS OF INDIVIDUAL RATIONAL CHOICE IN A TRADITIONAL TIME ALLOCATION PROBLEM. PROPERTY CRIMES CONSIDERED ARE BURGLARY, ROBBERY, AND LARCENY. EXPECTED RETURN FOR ANY GIVEN PROPERTY CRIME IS DEFINED AS GROSS RETURN MINUS THE PROBABILITY OF CAPTURE TIMES THE MONETARY EQUIVALENT OF THE PUNISHMENT. THE RESULTING MIX OF LEGAL AND ILLEGAL ACTIVITY IS ASSUMED TO DEPEND BOTH ON THE INDIVIDUAL'S OWN EXPECTED RETURNS AND ON EXPECTED RETURNS TO ALL INCOME PRODUCING AND TIME CONSUMING ACTIVITIES. THE MODEL INCLUDES ONE EQUATION FOR EACH PROPERTY CRIME AND A FOURTH EQUATION FOR THE SUPPLY OF LEGITIMATE EFFORT. BOTH MODERN DUALITY THEORY AS WELL AS AN ASSUMED BUDGET AND TIME CONSTRAINT ARE INCLUDED IN THE MODEL. DIRECT AND CROSS ELASTICITY ESTIMATES USING U.S. GOVERNMNET DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC DATA INDICATE, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT A 1 PERCENT INCREASE IN THE EXPECTED WAGE LEADS TO A .492 PERCENT DECREASE IN THE AGGREGATE BURGLARY RATE AND A .097 PERCENT INCREASE IN LEGAL ACTIVITIES. NO SIGNIFICANT CROSS ELASTICITIES AMONG THE THREE CRIMES WERE FOUND, HOWEVER. ALL THE ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES WERE RESPONSIVE TO THEIR OWN EXPECTED NET RETURNS, WITH BURGLARY THE MOST RESPONSIVE AND LARCENY THE LEAST RESPONSIVE. ELASTICITIES WITH RESPECT TO TWO SANCTIONS (CLEARANCE AND PUNISHMENT) WERE SMALL. ELASTICITIES WITH RESPECT TO EMPLOYMENT INDICATED THAT POLICIES DESIGNED TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE ALL PROPERTY CRIMES ONLY IF THEY REDUCE THE LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. THUS, PROPERTY CRIME RATES WERE MODERATELY SENSITIVE TO NET RETURNS EXPECTED BUT RELATIVELY INSENSITIVE TO POLICY CHANGES AFFECTING NET RETURNS. ELASTICITY TABLES AND APPENDICES INCLUDING A GLOSSARY, DETAILS OF THE METHODOLOGY, AND ADDITIONAL STATISTICAL RESULTS, ARE INCLUDED. (CFW)