NCJ Number
79729
Date Published
1980
Length
15 pages
Annotation
A methodology for projecting Kentucky's future prison population is presented.
Abstract
Accurate prison population projections are needed for budget preparation, determining needed bedspace as a basis for planning capital development, policy and program planning, and determining the impact of legislative changes. Criteria met in the new projection methodology are (1) the use of available and easily accessible data, (2) the obtaining of projections responsive to fluctuations in prison populations, (3) ability to incorporate hypothetical scenarios to analyze possible policy alternatives, (4) adaptability, (5) conversion to a computerized form, and (6) the production of consistently valid and reliable predictions. The proposed methodology meets these criteria through the use of a simulation model that incorporates knowledge of policies and procedures within the justice system to project the commitment, incarcerated population, and release components. The ORION information system currently being developed will be the key to the proposed projection model. Once the projection methodology is fully developed, it will be converted for use on electronic data processing equipment. It is suggested that information from ORION, along with past inmate population figures, unemployment figures, and general population data be incorporated into a single computer program using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences computer language. Other commonly used projection methods are briefly described, and tabular data provide a comparison of projected prison populations to actual population figures using a linear regression of the monthly population figures of the previous 2 years. Footnotes are given.