NCJ Number
139156
Date Published
1992
Length
75 pages
Annotation
Trends are forecast for a 10-year period in this future study designed to examine traditional models of providing law enforcement services.
Abstract
A group forecasting technique was used to forecast trends and events. The trends forecasted include public expectation of police services, revenues available for county government, crime rate, use of regionalized policing, and public satisfaction with level of law enforcement services received. Several events are forecast: response time by municipal police units is less than one-third that of Sheriff units; personnel reduction precludes Sheriff's patrol capabilities; county goes bankrupt; State withdraws all collateral funding; and State mandates Sheriff to provide only jail and court staff. On the basis of the forecasts, three possible future scenarios are developed. The future emerges as bleak because of trends that will have a negative impact on law enforcement as a whole and counties in particular. The normative scenario is used to develop a strategic plan to meet the feared but possible future. 1 appendix