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Providing an Early Warning of Emerging Drug Trends: The Fore Var System

NCJ Number
207889
Journal
Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy Volume: 11 Issue: 6 Dated: December 2004 Pages: 449-471
Author(s)
Jane Mounteney; Siv-Elin Leirvag
Date Published
December 2004
Length
23 pages
Annotation
This article describes the development and assesses the effectiveness of Bergen's (Norway) citywide "earlier warning" system, which is designed to present data on drug and alcohol use trends in the city every 6 months.
Abstract
Known as the Fore Var system, it triangulates and cross-references a wide range of statistical and quantitative data, including data on seizures, treatment, alcohol sales, and a school survey. Information is obtained from such "leading edge" sources as Internet sites, youth and local media, cultural mapping, and key informants. Data are collected every 6 months, analyzed for identifiable patterns and trends, and then disseminated widely. At the time this article was written, Fore Var had been operating for 1 1/2 years, yielding one pilot and two public reports. Although a longitudinal perspective is obviously impossible, notable patterns in drug use and availability can be identified in the three separate studies up to November 2003. Overall, levels for the use and availability of heroin, amphetamine, and cocaine have been relatively stable from May 2002 to November 2003; however, there has been a strong increase in the illicit use of Rohypnol. The assessment thus far is that the many data sources used by the Fore Var system has produced comparably reliable findings. The primary challenge is the development of effective models for collation, comparison, and cross-referencing of a range of routine and sensitive data, so that reliability increases. 3 tables and 17 references

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