PUERTO RICO - PROJECTIONS FOR PENAL POPULATION FOR THE YEARS 1973-1985

• NCJ Number: 14459
• Author(s): J H PETERSON
• Date Published: 1973
• Length: 59 pages
• Corporate Author: Puerto Rico Dept of Justice
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: Spanish
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

FORECASTS BASED ON FOUR STATISTICAL METHODS, A LIST OF FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE THE SIZE OF THE PRISON POPULATION, AND ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING SUCH FACTORS.

Abstract

THE STATISTICAL METHODS USED ARE THE PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL CHANGE IN THE PRISON POPULATION, THE AGE SPECIFIC METHOD, THE LINEAR REGRESSION METHOD, AND THE RATE OF INCREASE OF MALES AGED 15 TO 49 IN THE GENERAL POPULATION. THE RELEVANT FACTORS LISTED ARE CRIME RATES, ARREST RATES, CONVICTION RATES, LENGTH OF SENTENCES, AND RELEASE PROCEDURES. ALSO LISTED ARE 30 LAWS WHICH AFFECT THE SIZE OF THE PRISON POPULATION DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY BY INFLUENCING SOCIAL CONDITIONS. ONE FACTOR WHICH COULD AFFECT THE ACCURACY OF THE PROJECTIONS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING SEPARATE FACILITIES FOR DRUG ADDICTS, ALCOHOLICS, AND THE MENTALLY DISADVANTAGED, WHO MADE UP 73 PERCENT OF THE PRISON POPULATION IN 1973. PART TWO CONTAINING THE TABULATED RESULTS OF THIS STUDY, IS NCJ-14460. --IN SPANISH