NCJ Number
46137
Date Published
1977
Length
16 pages
Annotation
THIS REPORT IS A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH, CONTINUING AT THE RAND CORPORATION SINCE 1973, RELATIVE TO INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM.
Abstract
SHORTLY AFTER PRESIDENT NIXON CREATED THE CABINET COMMITTEE TO COMBAT TERRORISM, RAND WAS CONTRACTED TO CONDUCT RESEARCH ON THE PROBLEM OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. THIS RESEARCH WAS JOINTLY SPONSORED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE AND THE DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY AND WAS INITIALLY DIRECTED AT PROVIDING GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS WITH A BROAD UNDERSTANDING OF THE ORIGINS, THEORY, STRATEGY AND TACTICS OF MODERN TERRORISM, AS WELL AS IDENTIFYING AND EXPLORING SPECIFIC PROBLEM AREAS. AS IT APPLIES TO RAND'S RESEARCH, THE TERM 'TERRORISM' IS USED TO DESCRIBE RESEARCH ON A WIDE RANGE OF RELATED TOPICS, INCLUDING THE THEORY AND TACTICS OF TERRORISM; THE ORGANIZATION OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT FOR COMBATING TERRORISM; THE ANALYSIS OF INTELLIGENCE ON TERRORIST THREATS; HEURISTIC MODELING AND THE USE OF REMOTE ACCESS COMPUTERS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CRISES; THE POLICY AND TACTICS OF DEALING WITH POLITICAL KIDNAPING AND HOSTAGE SITUATIONS; THE EFFECTS OF BEING HELD HOSTAGE; U.S. MILITARY CAPABILITIES FOR SUBCONVENTIONAL MISSIONS; NEW VULNERABILITIES IN A SOCIETY INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON TECHNOLOGY; TRENDS AND POTENTIALITIES IN TERRORISM, NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS AND SECURITY; SUBNATIONAL NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES; AND THE ASSESSMENT OF NUCLEAR THREAT MESSAGES. APPROXIMATELY ONE-FIFTH OF ALL INCIDENTS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM -- ONE-THIRD IF THE DIVERSION OF AIRLINERS IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT -- INVOLVE TAKING HOSTAGES. A REVIEW OF 77 INTERNATIONAL HOSTAGE INCIDENTS WHICH OCCURRED BETWEEN 1968 AND 1975 SHOWED THAT AMERICAN DIPLOMATS AND REPRESENTATIVES ABROAD HAVE BEEN THE MOST FREQUENT TARGET OF KIDNAPERS. IT ALSO SHOWED THAT KIDNAPING WAS PREFERRED WHEN THE TERRORISTS WERE OPERATING ON THEIR OWN TERRITORY AND HAD AN UNDERGROUND ORGANIZATION TO SUPPORT THEM AND THAT SEIZURE OF EMBASSIES OR OTHER BUILDINGS WAS PREFERRED WHEN THE TERRORISTS WERE ACTING ABROAD OR AT HOME IN COUNTRIES WHERE THEY LACKED AN UNDERGROUND ORGANIZATION. ANOTHER PROBLEM AREA IDENTIFIED IN THE RESEARCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NUCLEAR ACTION BY POLITICAL EXTREMISTS OR CRIMINAL GROUPS; ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF RAND'S TOTAL RESEARCH ON TERRORISM DEALT WITH THIS NUCLEAR THREAT. THE FEASIBILITY OF A TERRORIST-POSED NUCLEAR THREAT INCREASES WITH THE SPREAD, ON AN INTERNATIONAL LEVEL, OR NUCLEAR REACTORS AND REPROCESSING FACILITIES. A STUDY FOCUSING ON THE ATTRIBUTES OF POTENTIAL ADVERSARIES, INCLUDING THEIR POSSIBLE MOTIVATIONS, RESOURCES, KNOWLEDGE, TECHNICAL EXPERTISE, DEDICATION, AND ARMAMENT IS CONTINUING. OTHER TRENDS BEING EXAMINED INCLUDE THE EVOLUTION OF POLITICALLY MOTIVATED TERRORIST GROUPS INTO PROFIT-MOTIVATED CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS AND THE EFFECT ON SOCIETY OF HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENT CRIME AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE AS EVIDENCED BY THE UNREST IN BELFAST, BUENOS AIRES, AND BEIRUT. (KBL)