RATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT FOR PROBATIONERS

• NCJ Number: 64266
• Author(s): C WENTZ; R J OLDROYD
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 26 pages
• Grant Number(s): S 78 F 3 1
• Sponsoring Agency: Utah Council on Criminal Justice Admin
• Corporate Author: Utah Dept of Corrections
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

AS ONE DIMENSION OF A SENTENCING GUIDELINE MATRIX, UTAH'S STATE DIVISION OF CORRECTIONS AND JUDICIAL COUNCIL HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT SCALE IS TESTED FOR ITS ABILITY TO PREDICT PROBATION OUTCOME.

Abstract

TWELVE VARIABLES, INCLUDING AGE AT DATE OF CONVICTION AND AT FIRST ARREST, PRIOR JUVENILE RECORD OR ADULT ARRESTS OR CONVICTIONS, AND CURRENT CHARGES PENDING OR DISMISSED, ANALYZED TO DISCOVER THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF PROBATION. PREDICTIVE VALIDITY FOR BOTH MISDEMEANANTS AND FELONS WAS TESTED. THE TEST OF CHARACTERISTICS OF FELONY PROBATIONERS, A SAMPLE OF 50 SUCCESSES AND 50 FAILURES, RESULTED IN 8 OF THE 13 VARIABLES ATTAINING SIGNIFICANCE (.05 LEVEL). THE EXAMINATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF MISDEMEANANT PROBATIONERS, A SAMPLE OF 50 SUCCESSES AND 50 FAILURES, RESULTED IN 3 OF THE 13 VARIABLES BEING SIGNIFICANT. THE COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF FELONY AND MISDEMEANANT PROBATIONERS RESULTED IN 10 OF THE 13 VARIABLES ATTAINING SIGNIFICANCE. SOME OF THE VARIABLES WERE SIGNIFICANT BEYOND THE .01 LEVEL. THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE TOTAL SCORE, .48 FOR FELONS, IS RELATIVELY HIGH COMPARED TO THAT OF SIMILAR SCALES. NEVERTHELESS, THE HISTORY/RISK ASSESSMENT SCALE HAS LIMITED PREDICTIVE POWER, AND ALL DECISIONS MADE UTILIZING THIS SCALE SHOULD BE RELATIVE TO GROUPS RATHER THAN INDIVIDUALS. INDIVIDUAL DECISIONS ON CASES SHOULD BE MADE AFTER CONSIDERING OTHER AGGRAVATING OR MITIGATING CIRCUMSTANCES. TABULAR DATA AND REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--MHP)