NCJ Number
241018
Date Published
December 2012
Length
33 pages
Annotation
This report details a study on the recidivism of offenders on Federal community supervision prepared for the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, Office of Probation and Pretrial Services.
Abstract
The report examines: 1) the rates of recidivism among offenders who entered Federal community supervision between October 1, 2004, and September 30, 2010; 2) how recidivism rates vary with risk and protective factors and the accuracy of using risk and protective factors to predict recidivism; and 3) how contextual factors (i.e. district, offender's environment, and probation officer characteristics) affect recidivism and revocation rates. It was found that approximately 30 percent of offenders in the study recidivated (i.e. committed a new offense or were revoked) during their term of supervision and roughly 38 percent recidivated within five years of commencing their supervision. Offenders were most often re-arrested for drug, violent, and property crimes. Several risk and protective factors that distinguish between offenders who will and will not recidivate during their term of supervision, and the "dangerousness" of future offenses, are identified. Arrest and revocations rates vary significantly across the 90 Federal districts when risk and protective factors are taken into account. Several district-level variables helped explain this variation in arrest and revocation rates across the districts, including: the population size, the proportion of American Indians, and the average household income in a district. Offenders who return to neighborhoods that are seen as impoverished and transient have higher failure rates. Finally, contrary to expectations, findings show that both arrest and revocation rates increase with supervisory officer experience in the Federal probation system. Similarly, arrest and revocations rates increase when a supervisory officer has an advanced degree.