Recidivism Prediction: A Duel Between the Belly Button and the Computer

• NCJ Number: 113355
• Author(s): G W Knox; B Lundin
• Date Published: Unknown
• Length: 16 pages
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Prepared for presentation at the 37th annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology on November 16, 1985 in San Diego, California

Annotation

This study reports on qualitative and quantitative methods for predicting recidivism. It is based on interviews with over 100 Felons in a community-based employment program at Chicago's Safer Foundation.

Abstract

Both adult and juvenile felons were interviewed. During the interviews both qualitative and quantitative methods were tested in tandem. The qualitative method consisted of a 5-minute oral interview carried out by one of the authors who has 23 years of experience as a police officer. His predictions were communicated to a third party who was not part of the research team. The quantitative method made use of a 2-page survey questionnaire read and responded to in writing by the felons. The questionnaire contained 23 questions: 10 tested self-esteem, the remainder dealt with the offender's social network, relations with family and friends, arrest and employment records, drug use, and job expectations. The qualitative method was found to be more effective in predicting recidivism, thus illustrating the importance of police experience. 28 references. (Author abstract modified)