REGIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT - MIDDLE EAST - NORTH AFRICA

• NCJ Number: 63627
• Author(s): ANON
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 56 pages
• Corporate Author: Risks International, Inc
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

THIS ASSESSMENT OF TERRORIST RISKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA INCLUDES ANALYSIS OF TERRORIST ACTIVITY FROM 1970 THROUGH 1978, TACTICS USED, ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS, AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER AREAS.

Abstract

THE ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON STATISTICAL INFORMATION IN THE RISKS INTERNATIONAL DATA BASE, WHICH CONTAINS INFORMATION ON SIGNIFICANT TERRORIST ACTIONS IN ALL NONCOMMUNIST COUNTRIES. GOVERNMENT, POLICE, AND PRESS REPORTS WERE USED TO COMPILE THE DATA. TERRORISM WAS DEFINED AS THREATENED OR ACTUAL USE OF FORCE AND VIOLENCE TO OBTAIN A POLITICAL GOAL THROUGH FEAR, COERCION, AND INTIMIDATION. TERRORIST ACTIONS ANALYZED INCLUDE KIDNAPPING, HIJACKING, ASSASSINATION, MAIMING, ATTACKS AGAINST FACILITIES, AND BOMBINGS. THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICAN REGION RANKS FOURTH, AFTER EUROPE, LATIN AMERICA, AND NORTH AMERICA, IN TOTAL TERRORIST ACTIVITY. IN CONTRAST TO SOME OTHER AREAS, HOWEVER, ITS TERRORISM STEMS NOT ONLY FROM GROUPS WITHIN COUNTRIES, BUT ALSO FROM PALESTINIAN AND ARAB TERRORIST GROUPS OPERATING IN ALL NATIONS OF THE WORLD. ISRAEL, LEBANON, AND JORDAN ACCOUNTED FOR 135 OF THE 244 244 INCIDENTS FORM 1970 THROUGH 1978. EUROPE WAS THE MAIN OUTSIDE TARGET AREA FOR ACTIONS BY PALESTINIAN AND ARAB TERRORIST GROUPS. MAIN TERRORIST TARGETS WERE BUSINESS FACILITIES PERSONNEL, FOLLOWED BY DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES AND STAFF. BOMBING WAS THE MAIN TACTIC USED, FOLLOWED BY FACILITY ATTACKS. GROUPS INCLUDED THE PALESTINIAN LIBERATION ORGANIZATION, AL FATAH, AS-SA'IQA, AND MANY OTHERS. FROM JANUARY 1978 TO JUNE 1979, MORE COMPLEX ACTIONS (HIJACKINGS, ASSASSINATIONS, KIDNAPPINGS, FACILITY ATTACKS) HAVE BEEN DEEMPHASIZED, WHILE BOMBINGS HAVE INCREASED. IMPROVED SECURITY MEASURES AS WELL AS TERRORIST LEADERSHIP'S INCREASING CONCERN FOR WORLD OPINION, MAY BOTH BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS TREND. THE SEVEN MAIN COUNTRIES FACING FUTURE TERRORIST PROBLEMS ARE YEMEN, LIBYA, IRAN, TURKEY, LEBANON, ISRAEL, AND EGYPT. TABLES, PROFILES OF INDIVIDUAL TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS, ANALYSES OF RISKS IN EACH COUNTRY, AND FOOTNOTES ARE INCLUDED. FOR SIMILAR ANALYSES OF OTHER REGIONS, SEE NCJ-63625-26, AND 63628. (CFW)