NCJ Number
194874
Journal
Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment Volume: 14 Issue: 2 Dated: April 2002 Pages: 155-167
Date Published
2002
Length
13 pages
Annotation
This study examined the predictive value of using historical information as well as psychometric data in assessing the risk of recidivism in male child abusers.
Abstract
The goal of this study was to analyze how the indicator of deviancy, a dynamic risk measurement, aided the predictive function of the Static-99, a static risk assessment measure. The authors hypothesized that, first, the level of static risk for each offender would significantly predict the probability of reconviction and, second, that the level of deviancy for the offenders would significantly contribute to the predictive power of the static risk assessment. To test their hypothesis, a sample of 53 child molesters in the United Kingdom were assessed as to their static, historical factors using the Static-99. The offenders were then followed for a 6 year period to determine the rate of reconviction for child abuse. The Static-99 measure was found to accurately predict recidivism among this group of offenders; the offenders characterized as high risk in the Static-99 measure were five times more likely to be reconvicted for a sexual offense. Adding the psychometric factor of deviancy significantly added to the accuracy of risk prediction among sexual offenders; 30 percent of the offenders classified as high deviancy were reconvicted. The authors claim that their results show the importance of using both static and dynamic risk factors when predicting recidivism among sexual offenders. Tables, references