NCJ Number
199315
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 43 Issue: 1 Dated: Winter 2003 Pages: 196-212
Date Published
2003
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This study examined the effects of event dependence and heterogeneity on repeat personal victimization across three interviewing periods of the 1994 U.S. National Crime Victimization Survey.
Abstract
"Event dependence" implies that an initial victimization increases the probability of a subsequent event. The successful completion of a first crime renders the target more vulnerable and/or attractive. "Heterogeneity" implies that individuals or households have constant chances of being victimized, irrespective of their victimization history. The dependent variable in the study was personal crime victimization. Independent variables were related to heterogeneity and event dependence. These encompassed individual and household characteristics as well as lifestyle and prior non- victimization of individuals clustered within households. The results indicate that victimization by personal crime, especially over successive time periods, was partly due to measured heterogeneity. Personal crimes experienced by members of the same household were moderately but persistently correlated. This suggests that unmeasured heterogeneity was also implicated in period-to-period repetition of personal crime. The combined effects of unmeasured and measured heterogeneity did not exhaust the predictability of prior victimization for subsequent victimization, meaning that a degree of event dependence was involved. Regarding implications for crime prevention, the importance of change after a crime is indicated, so that an offender's presumption that the person or place is as vulnerable as in the previous victimization is challenged by observable signs of change. Such change may be advertised by publicity or visual cues. 6 tables and 23 references