NCJ Number
48943
Journal
Terrorism Volume: 1 Issue: 1 Dated: (1977) Pages: 85-95
Date Published
1977
Length
11 pages
Annotation
THE RAND CORPORATION'S RESEARCH ON TERRORIST THEORY AND TACTICS IN THE PAST AND PROJECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE AND GOVERNMENTAL STRATEGIES FOR DEFENSE AGAINST TERRORISM NOW AND IN THE FUTURE IS SUMMARIZED.
Abstract
USING A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF TERRORISM, THE FOLLOWING TOPICS WERE TREATED IN THE RAND RESEARCH: THE THEORY AND TACTICS OF TERRORISM; THE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT FOR COMBATING TERRORISM; THE ANALYSIS OF INTELLIGENCE ON TERRORIST THREATS; HEURISTIC MODELING AND THE USE OF REMOTE-ACCESS COMPUTERS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CRISES; THE POLICY AND TACTICS OF DEALING WITH POLITICAL KIDNAPING AND HOSTAGE SITUATIONS; THE EFFECTS OF BEING HELD HOSTAGE; UNITED STATES MILITARY CAPABILITIES FOR SUBCONVENTIONAL MISSIONS; NEW VULNERABILITIES IN A SOCIETY INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON TECHNOLOGY; TRENDS AND POTENTIALITIES IN TERRORISM, NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS, AND SECURITY; SUBNATIONAL NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES; AND THE ASSESSMENT OF NUCLEAR THREAT MESSAGES. THE STUDY SHOWED THAT KIDNAPING WAS A PREFERRED TACTIC WHERE THE TERRORISTS WERE OPERATING ON THEIR OWN TERRITORY AND HAD AN UNDERGROUND ORGANIZATION TO SUPPORT THEM, WHEREAS SEIZURES OF EMBASSIES OR OTHER BUILDINGS WERE MORE LIKELY WHEN THE TERRORISTS WERE OPERATING IN COUNTRIES WHERE THEY LACKED AN UNDERGROUND ORGANIZATION. IT WAS FOUND THAT THE LOW RISK OF CAPTURE OR DEATH, THE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT DEMANDS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY SATISFIED, AND EVEN IF THEY ARE REJECTED, THE STILL HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE KIDNAPPERS WILL ESCAPE CAPTURE OR PUNISHMENT, MADE THE TERRORIST TACTIC OF SEIZING HOSTAGES THE MOST EFFECTIVE AND LEAST PERILBUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR NUCLEAR ACTION BY TERRORISTS IS BELIEVED TO BE AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY, PARTICULARLY WITH THE EXPANSION OF PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION FOR A GROWING NUMBER OF NUCLEAR REACTORS. TERRORISM IS VIEWED AS A TACTIC OF MANIPULATION LIKELY TO EXPAND IN EVER MORE SOPHISTICATED FORMS AS SMALL GROUPS OR NATIONS CONFRONT POWERFUL NATIONS SUCH AS THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NECESSITATE A GROWING 'INNER DEFENSE' OF FACILITIES AND OPERATIONS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, INVOLVING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY AND MANPOWER. INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS AND SOCIAL CONTROL MECHANISMS ARE BELIEVED LIKELY TO INCREASE WITH A CONSEQUENT LOSS OF CITIZEN FREEDOM AND PRIVACY. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (RCB)