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Response of the Criminal Justice System to Prison Overcrowding: Recidivism Patterns Among Four Successive Parolee Cohorts

NCJ Number
137407
Journal
Law and Society Review Volume: 25 Issue: 3 Dated: (1991) Pages: 601-620
Author(s)
W R Kelly; S Ekland-Olson
Date Published
1991
Length
20 pages
Annotation
Data were collected on four cohorts of parolees released in Texas in February 1984, 1985, 1986, and 1987 to determine whether restrictions on the "capacity" of prison systems and resulting pressures affected the probability and pattern of return to prison among parolees.
Abstract
Each cohort was followed for 36 months to determine the pattern and probability of returning to prison. "Survival analysis" techniques were used to explore four alternative explanations for shifts in recidivism probabilities. The commingling of several factors, all simultaneous responses to prison crowding affecting not only the pattern of reincarceration but also the overall level of recidivism, produced the decreased survival rates in the 1986 and 1987 cohorts. These factors include changes in the composition of the parole cohorts, public pressure in support of early revocation of parole, and legislation that unintentionally increased the incentives for "technical" revocations and a possible reduction in deterrence. 5 figures, 5 tables, and 20 references (Author abstract modified)

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