Revised Projections of Long Term Trends in the Prison Population to 2005

• NCJ Number: 174802
• Author(s): P White; I Powar
• Date Published: 1998
• Length: 16 pages
• Corporate Author: Great Britain Home Office Research Development and Statistics Directorate
• Sale Source: Great Britain Home Office Research Development and Statistics Directorate
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom

Annotation

Prison populations in England and Wales were predicted to the year 2005 using linear regression to provide a straight line to fit recent data and also using a flow model that estimated the effects of different sentencing policy scenarios.

Abstract

The revised methodology was chosen due to changes in sentencing policy, which resulted in more increases in inmate populations than previously predicted. Scenarios included further increases in the proportions of offenders sentenced to prison, a continuation of current sentencing trends, and continued sentencing of the same proportion to imprisonment as in 1997. Results of the original methodology predicted that the prison population in England and Wales would be 82,800 in 2005. In contrast, the new methodology indicated that the prison population would be between 64,400 and 92,600 in 2005. Figure, tables, footnotes, and endnotes