Risk Analysis - Observations on the Theory of Vulnerability Reduction (From Controlling Cargo Theft - A Handbook of Transportation Security, P 711-725, 1983, Louis A Tyska and Lawrence J Fennelly, ed. - See NCJ-88969)

• NCJ Number: 88986
• Author(s): B F Woods
• Date Published: 1983
• Length: 15 pages
• Sale Source: Butterworth-Heinemann
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

Steps in a security risk analysis include establishing survey objectives, an overview of the security plan, problem evaluation, problem development, analysis of variables, program validation, and implementation.

Abstract

In setting survey objectives the surveyor must understand the specific operational needs of the client, so that survey objectives will derive from interviews with the client where the client expresses his/her views on expected outcomes of the survey. The second step of the risk analysis is the development of a security plan. Operationally, a security plan is a time schedule for the accomplishment of the inquiry steps, which may be further divided into specific tasks. This is essential for estimating the time and resources required for the analysis. Problem evaluation provides the surveyor with a framework for the recommended approaches to the problem areas being studied and establishes the direction of all future work in this area. The tasks of problem evaluation are (1) the determination of problem dimensions, (2) the determination of client controllable decision variables, (3) the determination of uncontrollable variables, (4) the determination of technology, and (5) the determination of measures of effectiveness. The next step in risk analysis, program development, involves a precise statement of the specific problem, which is submitted to the client for consideration. Analysis of variables involves determining what assumptions should be made and methods developed to make a program for attacking the problem practically. The program should then be validated prior to implementation. The program should be validated for consistency, sensitivity, plausibility, workability, and flexibility. The implementation should include the preparation of training materials, the development and presentation of orientation seminars, and the use of realistic case-study applications. Also, implementation difficulties should be foreseen and plans for dealing with them established.