NCJ Number
188598
Journal
Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Volume: 29 Issue: 1 Dated: 2001 Pages: 6-10
Date Published
2001
Length
5 pages
Annotation
Currently, there is a vigorous debate in the processional literature about the relative merits of clinical versus actuarial prediction of violent behavior in the broader context of risk assessment; this editorial argues that the forced choice between these two models is unnecessary, and it proposes a model for incorporating both types of decision making in the real world of forensic and correctional release.
Abstract
The authors recommend that the safest way to return someone from confinement to freedom is in increments of decreased structure and increased freedom. As the likelihood, severity, and imminence of predicted violent behavior increase, the patient should be required to negotiate a greater number of increments, each of which is smaller; and there should be a more demanding threshold used to define successful completion of each increment. The increments themselves should each include demonstration of skill acquisition that is related to specific risk factors that emerge from careful clinical study of the patient's history. Forensic release decision making should distinguish between three aspects of risk: probability, imminence, and severity of outcome. Severity is best defined by prior violence to date, including the current charges; probability is best defined by actuarial models; and imminence is defined by the pattern of violence in the person's prior career, as well as their statements, plans, target availability, and life circumstances. These goals can be advanced through the continued development of empirically driven risk-assessment procedures. 13 references