NCJ Number
124612
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 6 Issue: 1 Dated: special issue (March 1990) Pages: 117-130
Date Published
1990
Length
14 pages
Annotation
The clearance rate is often used as an indicator of the risk of detection, in spite of the fact that these are different matters.
Abstract
This article suggests a method to make estimates of the risk of detection based on information from the Swedish crime statistics. The risk of detection is expressed as a function of the dark figure. Empirical estimates of the risk are given for drunken driving, residential burglary, and assault between strangers. These estimates are followed up with some calculations concerning the impact of crime activity level on the risk of getting caught. One major conclusion of the findings is that the risk of detection varies very moderately with the dark figure. This means that if there is some knowledge of the dark figure, it is often possible to make fairly good estimates of the risk of detection. 3 figures, 3 tables, and 17 references. See NCJ 124605-124612 for individual papers. (Author abstract)