Risk Tells Us Who, But Not What or How: Empirical Assessment of the Complexity of Criminogenic Needs to Inform Correctional Programming

• NCJ Number: 248674
• Journal: Criminology & Public Policy Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Dated: 2015 Pages: 71-103
• Author(s): Faye S. Taxman; Michael S. Caudy
• Date Published: February 2015
• Length: 31 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2009-DG-BX-K026
• Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA)
• Publication Format: Article; Document (Online)
• Publication Type: Issue Overview
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: This study was funded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance (2009-DG-BX-K026). All opinions are those of the researchers and not the government agencies.

Annotation

The research presented in this article illustrates the complexity of offender need profiles to inform the development and implementation of correctional interventions.

Abstract

This article details a study that used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify profiles of criminogenic needs in a sample of 17,252 community-supervised individuals from a State probation system to illustrate the complexity of offender need profiles to inform the development and implementation of correctional interventions. The LCA analyses revealed four classes of dynamic needs characterized by the following: 1) a low probability of both risks and destabilizers, 2) a moderate probability of risk and criminogenic needs with a high probability of multiple destabilizers, 3) a high probability of risk and needs with moderate probabilities of destabilizers, and 4) a high probability of static and criminogenic needs and destabilizers. Conditional item probabilities were examined to label the four classes based on their likelihood of presenting with static risk, criminogenic needs, and destabilizing factors. The relationship between latent class membership and three separate recidivism outcomes were assessed and found to be consistent with study hypotheses - individuals in latent classes characterized by a greater probability of criminogenic needs and lifestyle destabilizers were more likely to experience subsequent criminal justice involvement, regardless of risk level. Simplifying the complexity of offender risk and need profiles through empirical classification has direct implications for policy and practice. First, it clarifies whether dynamic needs and/or risk should drive decision making. Second, the integration of dynamic risk factors into the case management process can inform strategies to mitigate static risk and inform the development of new and improved interventions. The current study findings provide insight into the clustering of dynamic risk factors within individuals. This classification structure has the potential to increase the precision of case management decisions by identifying targets for programming that are likely to co-occur for many offenders. Specifically, programs can be developed to tailor components to specific static risk and need profiles.