NCJ Number
82564
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 19 Issue: 1 Dated: (January 1982) Pages: 84-109
Date Published
1982
Length
26 pages
Annotation
A comparison is made of various methodologies used in quantitative prediction of parole outcome. The Salient Factor Score, designed as an actuarial parole prognosis aid, is compared for accuracy and efficiency of prediction with a logistic latent trait model whose parameters were estimated in two different ways.
Abstract
One estimation scheme, maximum likelihood, is known to be adversely affected by noisy data, so a second method, robust in the face of deviations from assumptions of the model, was also used. In a 1970 two-year follow-up data set from the United States Parole Commission, the robust latent trait model is shown to predict parole performance more accurately than is possible with the other estimation scheme. The differences lie in the tail of the probity distribution, where the robust estimates prove to be clearly superior. It is proposed that these techniques also be tested in other parts of the criminal justice system. (Author abstract)