NCJ Number
193026
Date Published
January 2002
Length
16 pages
Annotation
This report presents projections of the numbers of juveniles to be housed in secure facilities operated by the Arizona Department of Juvenile Corrections through fiscal year 2012, based on assumptions associated with future decisionmaking and population trends.
Abstract
The projections rested on assumptions about the future associated with future admissions and lengths of stay in secure facilities. The analysis assumed that current reported lengths of stay in regular secure care were representative of future periods of confinement pending revocation and parole reinforcement statuses. The study also assumed that the number of annual new commitments would increase in proportion to the increase in at-risk youths in Arizona and that the number of parole violators returning to pending status would remain largely unchanged in the future. Results indicated that the Arizona Department of Corrections secure population will increase by 3.9 percent over its secure population of 739 on December 18, 2001, to an average of 768 in fiscal year 2006, following projected declines in fiscal years 2003 and 2004. Factors that will produce this increase included the impact of court-ordered minimum lengths of stay, the increase in the juvenile population, the implementation of a structured decision making matrix for the review of parole violators, and four other factors. Figures