Self-Reported Offending, Maturational Reform, and the Easterlin Hypothesis

• NCJ Number: 126618
• Journal: Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 6 Issue: 3 Dated: (September 1990) Pages: 237-267
• Author(s): S Menard; D S Elliott
• Date Published: 1990
• Length: 31 pages
• Grant Number(s): MH27552; 78-JN-AX-003
• Sponsoring Agency: US Securities and Exchange Cmssn; US Dept of Health and Human Services
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study uses the maturational reform and Easterlin cohort size hypotheses to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on self-reported crime and delinquency.

Abstract

Logarithmic transformations, curvilinear effects, and the distinction between frequency of offending and prevalence are considered. Data are taken from the National Youth Survey (NYS), a prospective, longitudinal study. In terms of general offending, the trend is that the percentage of individuals involved in illegal behavior in any given cohort decreases over time. The findings indicate there is a statistically significant age-specific downward trend in the prevalence of general delinquency, but not in the prevalence of Index offending or the incidence of either type of offending. The Easterlin hypothesis is well supported by the data; as predicted, cohort size and associated characteristics influence the probability and overall amount of criminal and delinquent behavior in the adolescents considered in this study. However, maturational reform theory, which predicts a nonlinear relationship between age and offending, seems to be more characteristic of general offending than of Index offending. One of the most important issues for future research is to integrate age, period, and cohort size with other predictors of illegal behaviors. 3 tables and 63 references (Author abstract modified)