Sensitivity of Prison Population Projections to Information About the Population of Potential Predicate Felons

• NCJ Number: 126064
• Author(s): S Greenstein; N Walker
• Date Published: 1990
• Length: 21 pages
• Corporate Author: New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services
• Sale Source: NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

The New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services has been exploring the magnitude of the impact that individuals with prior felony convictions (FELCONs) have on criminal justice system resources.

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of these findings by incorporating projections of growth in the FELCON pool, individuals arrested and processed who have at least one prior felony conviction, into the estimation of future populations. The new methods rely on separate population estimates for FELCONs and NOCONs or persons in the general population who have no prior felony convictions. NOCON arrest rates are estimated as the ratio of NOCON arrests to the size of the NOCON population. FELCON arrest rates are estimated as the ratio of FELCON arrests to the size of the FELCON population. The population of FELCONs and NOCONs exhibit different trends, and because FELCONs have higher arrest rates, conviction rates, and incarceration rates than NOCONs, the new methods generate substantially higher prison population projections than earlier methods. To demonstrate the sensitivity of the projections to underlying assumptions about the FELCON pool, five scenarios are presented in which the underlying assumptions are varied. These scenarios also serve to illustrate the broad range of effects that changes in the size and composition of the FELCON pool may have on prison population and other criminal justice system resources. 4 footnotes, 9 tables, and 3 references. (Author abstract modified)