Sex Offenders Emerging from Long-Term Imprisonment: A Study of Their Long-Term Reconviction Rates and of Parole Board Members' Judgements of Their Risk

• NCJ Number: 195223
• Journal: British Journal of Criminology Volume: 42 Issue: 2 Dated: Spring 2002 Pages: 371-394
• Author(s): Roger Hood; Stephen Shute; Martina Feilzer; Aidan Wilcox
• Date Published: 2002
• Length: 24 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom

Annotation

This article explores the extent of recidivism among a sample of sex offenders as well as the accuracy with which the parole board correctly identified as high risk those who were subsequently reconvicted.

Abstract

The authors note that there is a widespread assumption that the recidivism rate among sex offenders is quite high. This article explores the validity of this assumption as well as the extent to which a parole board correctly identified whether a sex offender posed a high risk of recidivism. One hundred and sixty two male sex offenders were followed for 4 years after their release from prison; 94 sex offenders were followed for a period of 6 years after release. Of the 162 participants who were followed for 4 years, 23.5 percent were reconvicted for a subsequent sex offense. Of the 94 offenders who were followed for 6 years, the reconviction rate was 30.9 percent. The authors then posed two questions, first, what proportion of those who were reconvicted were correctly assessed as ‘high risk’ by members of the parole board? Second, of those who were not identified as high risk by members of the parole board, what proportion turned out to be ‘high risk’ after all? The findings showed that at least one board member correctly identified all of the high risk men who were reconvicted at the 4 year stage. Of those reconvicted at the 6 year stage, all but one was correctly identified as high risk by a board member. In comparison, 92 percent of sex offenders who were not reconvicted were incorrectly identified as high risk by a member of the parole board. The authors then used a risk assessment tool called the Static-99 to predict the rate of recidivism among these participants. They concluded that the Static-99 tool would not have improved the ability of the parole board to correctly identify those who were truly at a high risk for recidivism. The implications of this research, according to the authors, is that first, the reconviction rate among sex offenders is actually lower than has been assumed. Second, parole board members tend to overestimate the recidivism risk posed by sex offenders. Tables, references