Short-Term Trends in Crime and Delinquency: A Comparison of UCR (Uniform Crime Reports), NCS (National Crime Survey), and Self-Report Data

• NCJ Number: 109340
• Journal: Justice Quarterly Volume: 4 Issue: 3 Dated: (September 1987) Pages: 455-474
• Author(s): S Menard
• Date Published: 1987
• Length: 20 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: This paper is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1986 annual meeting of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences

Annotation

This study examines short-term (5- to 10-year) trends in crime and juvenile delinquency, using FBI Uniform Crime Reports data on arrests and offenses known to the police, National Crime Survey data on victimization, and National Youth Survey data on self-reported delinquency.

Abstract

The focus in on FBI index offenses, but less serious offenses also are considered. FBI statistics indicate generally increasing rates of crime, while NCS and NYS data indicate stable and occasionally decreasing rates. Data on the self-reported incidence of delinquency are more compatible with arrest data than are data on the self-reported prevalence of delinquency, but the two self-report measures are more compatible with one another than with arrest data. Attempts to reconcile official statistics with victimization surveys and self-report studies seem unlikely to overcome the differences among the sources when trends in crime, rather than rates of crime at a single time, are considered. (Publisher abstract)