Simulation of Adaptive Response: A Model of Drug Interdiction

• NCJ Number: 115123
• Author(s): G B Crawford; P Reuter; K Isaacson; P Murphy
• Date Published: 1988
• Length: 111 pages
• Grant Number(s): MDA903-85-C-0030
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Defense
• Corporate Author: Rand Corporation
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Measurement/Evaluation Device
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Rand Note N-2680-USDP

Annotation

This paper presents a simulation model -- called SOAR (Simulation Of Adaptive Response) -- of the effect of interdiction on drug smugglers.

Abstract

The model takes into account smugglers' adaptations to the strategies of interdiction agencies and traces how this adaptation affects increased interdiction efforts to reduce U.S. drug consumption. In SOAR, increasing the risk of interdiction raises the cost of smuggling and consuming drugs. SOAR is based on the assumption that smugglers have some perception of the probability of interdiction with each specific route and transportation method. The application of the SOAR model yields a mixed result for the effect of increased interdiction stringency. Results are generally unpromising for cocaine runs, suggesting that unless almost all available smuggling routes are severely interdicted, only modest reductions in total consumption will occur. Marijuana imports, however, can be substantially reduced with sufficiently stringent interdiction. Raising interdiction on five random routes reduces imports by one-third. Raising interdiction rates on a few routes has little effect. The random allocation of additional resources can substantially increase the effect of these resources. 9 figures, 7 tables, 7-item bibliography.