NCJ Number
36987
Date Published
1976
Length
26 pages
Annotation
THIS PAPER DEVELOPS A BLOCK RECURSIVE PATH MODEL OF THE RELATIONSHIPS OF A NUMBER OF PREDICTOR VARIABLES TO EACH OTHER AND TO FUTURE JUVENILE OFFENDING.
Abstract
THE ANALYSIS IS BASED ON THE MATRIX OF INTERCORRELATIONS OF FIVE PREDICTOR VARIABLES (RACE, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, SCHOOL PERFORMANCE AT AGE 10 YEARS, TEACHER RATINGS OF STABILITY AT AGE 10 YEARS, AND DELINQUENCY PRONENESS AT AGE 10 YEARS) AND A SINGLE CRITERION OF JUVENILE OFFENDING - THE NUMBER OF APPEARANCES BEFORE THE CHILDREN'S COURT BY AGE 17. DATA WAS COLLECTED ON A SAMPLE OF 4,503 10-YEAR OLD NEW ZEALAND BOYS. VARIABLES ARE GROUPED INTO THREE CLASSES OR BLOCKS - SOCIAL BACKGROUND VARIABLES, SCHOOL PERFORMANCE AND ADJUSTMENT VARIABLES, AND JUVENILE OFFENDING BY AGE 17 YEARS. WITHIN THESE BLOCKS THE VARIABLES ARE ASSUMED TO BE MUTUALLY INTERACTING; BETWEEN BLOCKS, THE VARIABLES IN EACH ONLY INFLUENCE EACH OTHER IN CERTAIN DIRECTIONS. THE BLOCK RECURSIVE PATH MODEL SPECIFIES THE BETWEEN BLOCKS INFLUENCE OF THE VARIABLES BY A SERIES OF STRUCTURAL LINEAR EQUATIONS. WITHIN BLOCKS, THE MUTUAL INFLUENCE OF THE VARIABLES IS ACCOUNTED FOR BY A SERIES OF CORRELATIONS WHICH REMAIN UNEXPLAINED WITHIN THE MODEL, THE PATH DIAGRAM FOR THE MODEL IS PRESENTED AND EXPLAINED. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE IMPACT OF THE SOCIAL BACKGROUND VARIABLES (RACE AND SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS) IS MAINLY DIRECT, WHILE SCHOOL PERFORMANCE AND STABILITY HAVE NEGLIGIBLE DIRECT EFFECT ON OFFENDING BEHAVIOR. THE GENERAL IMPLICATIONS OF THESE RESULTS ARE EXAMINED. THE BLOCK RECURSIVE PATH MODEL IS ALSO DISCUSSED AS A SPECIAL CASE OF A MORE GENERAL MODEL WHICH PROVIDES A BASIS FOR INTEGRATING SOCIOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORIES OF THE ETIOLOGY OF YOUNG OFFENDING.