NCJ Number
90482
Journal
Monatsschrift fuer Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform Volume: 65 Issue: 3 Dated: (June 1982) Pages: 163-176
Date Published
1982
Length
14 pages
Annotation
Econometric analyses of crime-related phenomena have produced conflicting results and offer little promise of becoming the long-sought empirical basis for criminal justice policy.
Abstract
Attributing cost-benefit and demand-supply principles to processes of criminal involvement has enabled researchers to conduct statistical analyses that purport to measure deterrence effectiveness as well as the effects of various crime determinant socioeconomic factors. Such efforts, however, evidence methodological bias and have resulted in contradictory conclusions. For example, one study offers evidence that a single executed death sentence deters eight homicides, while another disclaims any empirical proof of a deterrent effect. Methodological and discretionary flaws also plague regression analyses of crime determinants, since environmental and background factors are so numerous and complex, but studies can focus on only a selected few in isolation. It is important that results from such mathematical exercises not be interpreted as sufficient grounds for policy formulation on issues as grave as capital punishment, law enforcement levels, and criminality prediction. Tabular data, 15 footnotes, and approximately 50 references are given.