SOCIOECONOMIC MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF SOCIETAL RATES OF PROPERTY THEFT

• NCJ Number: 14490
• Journal: Social Forces Volume: 52 Issue: 4 Dated: (JUNE 1974) Pages: 462-472
• Author(s): R MANSFIELD; L C GOULD; J Z NAMENWIRTH
• Date Published: 1974
• Length: 11 pages
• Corporate Author: University of North Carolina Press
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

MATHMATICAL RELATIONS FOR PREDICTION ARE DEVISED, USING SUCH FACTORS AS SUPPLY AVAILABLE AT ACCEPTABLE RISK LEVEL AND DEMAND FOR THE STOLEN ARTICLE.

Abstract

THE MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF SOCIETAL RATES OF PROPERTY THEFT IS DEDUCED BY APPLYING THE SOCIOECONOMIC PRINCIPLES GOVERNING CONVENTIONAL MARKETS TO THE TRANSACTIONS INVOLVED IN PROPERTY THEFT. IN DEDUCING THIS MODEL, A DISTINCTION IS MADE BETWEEN PROFESSIONAL AND AMATEUR THEIVES. THE MODEL IS TESTED WITH DATA FROM FIVE COUNTRIES AND IS SUPPORTED. THE IMPLICATION OF THE MODEL THAT THE ACTIONS OF VICTIMS, SUCH AS THE EXTENT TO WHICH THEY VALUE AND PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY, AS WELL AS THOSE OF CRIMINALS DETERMINE RATES OF PROPERTY CRIME IS POINTED OUT. THE MODEL IS SEEN AS SUGGESTING THAT CRIME RATES (AT LEAST FOR PROPERTY CRIME) ARE NOT AFFECTED BY INDIVIDUAL CRIMINALITY, BUT BY VARIATIONS IN THE SUPPLY OF STEALABLE GOODS, AS WELL AS THE DEMAND FOR GOODS TO BE STOLEN. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED).