NCJ Number
192538
Journal
Jane's Intelligence Review Volume: 14 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2002 Pages: 16-17
Date Published
January 2002
Length
2 pages
Annotation
This analysis of the issues related to Somalia focuses on the nature of the society and the country’s role as a haven for some Islamist terrorist groups and the implications for counterterrorist efforts by the United States.
Abstract
The United States considers Somalia a likely refuge for members or associates of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network. However, the United States has collected few intelligence data regarding the country. The United States has not understood the complexities of the country’s clan-based social structure. In fact, its own allies and informants have repeatedly misled the United States to advance the parochial interests of their own clans and sub-clans. However, the chaos of the country’s civil war made Somalia a useful recruiting ground for radical groups. Radical groups have sought to use the country as a safe haven and training ground. However, it will be difficult for the United States to identify terrorist groups in Somalia. These groups no longer operate openly and no longer seek to control territory. The groups will be difficult or impossible to target in a war against terror. The Somali clan system and the shadowy nature of these groups will make it hard to identify members and root out these groups. In addition, the amorphous character of the war on terrorism being led by the United States makes it vulnerable to capture by regional interest. The United States is likely to be manipulated and misled. A wiser course for the United States would be to invest in Somalia through improved intelligence on the country’s political dynamics and a well thought out program of development assistance that will gain friends. This would be the surest safeguard against terrorism. Photograph