NCJ Number
65914
Journal
Canadian Police College Journal Volume: 3 Issue: 4 Dated: (1979) Pages: 316-341
Date Published
1979
Length
26 pages
Annotation
SEVERAL SCENARIOS ON POLICING IN CANADA IN 1984 HIGHLIGHT POLICE EXPENDITURE DEVELOPMENTS AS A FURTHER STEP IN THE STUDY OF THE FUTURE OF CRIME AND CRIME CONTROL IN CANADA.
Abstract
THE SCENARIOS ARE BASED ON A RELATIVELY SIMPLE SIMULATION PROGRAM WHICH DESCRIBES THE TRENDS IN CANADIAN CRIME AND POLICING FROM 1963 TO 1977 AND EXTRAPOLATES THESE TRENDS UP TO 1984. THE PROGRAM IS DEVELOPED BY FORMULATING A PRELIMINARY HYPOTHETICAL MODEL, COLLECTING DATA ON THE EXOGENOUS AND ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, CONSTRUCTING A WORKING MODEL OF CANADIAN CRIME AND POLICING OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS THROUGH MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS, AND WRITING AND SIMULATION PROGRAM BASED ON THIS MODEL TO PROJECT CANADIAN CRIME AND POLICING DEVELOPMENTS. SCENARIO NO. 1, 'BUSINESS AS USUAL,' INDICATED THAT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE, THERE WILL BE ONLY MARGINAL INCREASES IN THE REAL SALARY OF POLICE EMPLOYEES BETWEEN 1978 TO 1984. SCENARIO NO. 2, 'INCREASES IN POLICE SALARIES' INTRODUCES THE EXPLICIT ASSUMPTION THAT, AFTER 1979, REAL POLICE SALARIES (IN CONSTANT 1961 DOLLARS) WILL INCREASE EACH YEAR BY 6 PERCENT. A POSSIBLE LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER IS SEEN IN THE THIRD SCENARIO ON DECREASES IN POLICE SALARIES, AND A POLICE-RATE FREEZE IS PROJECTED IN THE FOURTH. ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS EXPLORE FREEZING THE ABSOLUTE NUMBER OF POLICE OFFICERS, REDEFINING THE POLICE OFFICER ROLE, AND DECLARING A WAR ON CRIMINALS WITH A CONSEQUENT INCREASE OF POLICE OFFICERS REGARDLESS OF COSTS. THE FOURTH SCENARIO IS ASSUMED TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS, IMPLYING (1) NO FURTHER EXPANSION OF POLICE SERVICES BEYOND THAT WHICH RESPONDS TO A LARGER POPULATION AND (2) A SMALL DECREASE IN THE PURCHASING POWER OF POLICE PERSONNEL. REFERENCES, MODEL CHARTS, AND TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED. (AOP)