Spatial Pattern Analysis of PKK-KONGRA GEL Terror Incidents in Turkey: 2003-2004 (From Understanding and Responding to the Terrorism Phenomenon: A Multi-Dimensional Perspective, P 153-163, 2007, Ozgur Nikbay and Suleyman Hancerli, eds. -- See NCJ-225118)

• NCJ Number: 225131
• Author(s): Suleyman Demirci; I-Shian Suen Ph.D.
• Date Published: 2007
• Length: 11 pages
• Sale Source: IOS Press
• Publication Format: Book Chapter
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: Netherlands

Annotation

This study examined potential spatial associations among PKK-KONGRA GEL (People’s Congress of Kurdistan) terror incident rates in Turkish cities from 2003 to 2004.

Abstract

The research identified four cities with the highest standard deviation against the mean of PKK-KONGRA GEL terror incident rates across Turkey. In both 2003 and 2004, these cities were clustered in southeastern Turkey. The political and ethnic movements in Northern Iraq may have contributed to the increase of PKK terror incidents in this geographic area. PKK terrorist incidents moved from mideastern to southeastern Turkey between 2003 and 2004. The study used cities as the unit of analysis. There are currently 81 cities in Turkey. The terror incidents were aggregated for administrative spatial units of observation. The number of terrorist incidents per city was obtained from the Turkish National Police. Once the data were obtained from formal documents they were merged with geographic data layers of the cities by using their unique identification in ArcGIS 9.1 software. GeoDa software was used to explore possible spatial dependency. Global Moran’s I statistics and Local LISA statistics were the primary methods used to determine the spatial autocorrelation for terrorist incident rates across Turkish cities. 3 figures and 27 references