Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Insurgency in Iraq (From Reducing Terrorism Through Situational Crime Prevention, P 9-32, 2009, Joshua D. Freilich and Graeme D. Newman, eds., see - NCJ-229596)

• NCJ Number: 229597
• Author(s): Shane D Johnson; Alex Braithwaite
• Date Published: 2009
• Length: 24 pages
• Sale Source: Criminal Justice Press/Willow Tree Press
• Publication Format: Book Chapter
• Publication Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This chapter focuses on patterns of insurgent activity and how it might be helpful in the timing and location of future attacks.

Abstract

In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, counter-insurgency operations have taken primacy in many states' policy agendas. In this chapter, the authors provided an overview of the Iraq conflict and review existing theory regarding insurgent targeting strategies. In particular, they focused on how attacks might be organized in space and time given the resources available to insurgents, and the spatial and temporal constraints that shape their behavior. Using data for a 6-month interval of time, they then examined space-time patterns of two types of attack: IED and non-IED. The results indicate that both types, of attack cluster in space and time more than would be expected if their timing and location were independent. Simply put, following an attack at one location others are more likely nearby within a short interval of time, but the risk of attack within the vicinity diminishes with time. Importantly, the precise patterns varied by attack type, suggesting that they were generated by different types of insurgent strategy and that different counter-insurgent tactics would be appropriate for different types of attack. Tables, figures, notes, and references (Published Abstract)