STATE AND DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF CRIME IN RELATION TO THREE PRIMARY VARIABLES IN A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES

• NCJ Number: 36283
• Journal: QUADERNI DI CRIMINOLOGIA CLINICA Volume: 18 Issue: 1 Dated: (JANUARY MARCH 1976) Pages: 3-30
• Author(s): M KROHN; C WELLFORD
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 28 pages
• Corporate Author: Ministero di Grazia E Giustizia
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Country: Italy

Annotation

THE VARIABLES OF POPULATION, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA, AND POLITICAL ORIENTATION ARE CORRELATED WITH HOMICIDE RATES, PROPERTY CRIME RATES, AND TOTAL CRIME RATES FOR A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES INCLUDING THE U.S.

Abstract

THE RESULTS INDICATE THAT IN THE STATE ANALYSIS THE THREE VARIABLES EXPLAIN A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF THE VARIANCE IN PROPERTY CRIME RATES, AND TOTAL CRIME RATES WHEREAS THEY DO NOT EXPLAIN MUCH OF THE VARIANCE IN THE HOMICIDE RATE. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA CONTRIBUTES THE MOST TO THE EXPLAINED VARIANCE IN ALL THE ANALYSES. A THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE COMBINING THE IDEAS INCORPORATED IN CONTROL THEORY AND IN ENVIRONMENTAL OPPORTUNITY THEORY WAS EMPLOYED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RESULTS. THE RESULTS OF THE DYNAMIC ANALYSES PARALLEL THOSE OF THE STATE ANALYSES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EQUATION EMPLOYING THE TOTAL CRIME RATE AS THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE. THE TOTAL VARIANCE EXPLAINED IN THIS EQUATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN IN THE STATIC ANALYSIS FOR THE TOTAL CRIME RATE. DURKHEIM'S NOTIONS OF THE FUNCTIONS OF CRIME AND THE EXPECTED STABILITY IN CRIME RATES WERE OFFERED AS AN EXPLANATION FOR THIS FINDING. --IN ITALIAN. SUMMARY IN ITALIAN, FRENCH, ENGLISH, AND GERMAN