NCJ Number
110851
Journal
Research in Corrections Volume: 1 Issue: 1 Dated: (March 1988) Pages: complete issue
Date Published
1988
Length
52 pages
Annotation
This monograph includes a critical assessment of the use of statistical prediction in corrections and discussions of the significance of these findings to agency operations and of the importance of a strategy for implementing statistical predictions.
Abstract
Prediction is probably the most commonly used basis on which corrections officials make decisions about offenders. Prediction can be an informal or formal process. The research literature shows that the accuracy of predictions of rare behaviors such as committing a violent crime is limited. However, the understanding of ways to use statistical methods in making predictions has greatly improved in recent years, thereby improving the general ability to predict crime by classifying offenders into risk categories. The use of risk assessments has led to the use of risk management programs in corrections operations and decisionmaking. However, many precautions are needed in designing and implementing a prediction-based approach to corrections decisionmaking. Description of the use of prediction methodology in Marion County, Oreg.; figures; tables; and 79 references.