NCJ Number
232304
Journal
Crime & Delinquency Volume: 52 Issue: 1 Dated: January 2006 Pages: 178-200
Date Published
January 2006
Length
23 pages
Annotation
This article presents a general discussion on risk assessment with a focus on methodological issues that affect accuracy.
Abstract
Statistically based risk assessment devices are widely used in criminal justice settings. Their promise remains largely unfulfilled, however, because assumptions and premises requisite to their development and application are routinely ignored and/or violated. This article provides a brief review of the most salient of these assumptions and premises, addressing the base rate and selection ratios, methods of combining predictor variables and the nature of criterion variables chosen, cross-validation, replicability, and generalizability. The article also discusses decisionmakers' choices to add or delete items from the instruments and suggests recommendations for policymakers to consider when adopting risk assessments. Suggestions for improved practice, practical and methodological, are made. Notes and references (Published Abstract)