NCJ Number
190880
Date Published
2000
Length
19 pages
Annotation
This chapter examinesdthe disincentives to using nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons that might play a role in terrorists’ decision making.
Abstract
One of the key anomalies in the past record of NBC terrorism was the small number of actual cases in which these weapons had been used. Disincentives lie in the political goals that the group wants to achieve, and the strategies that it employs to achieve those goals, coupled with the perceived consequences of using these weapons. Groups that are predominantly secular or political in character are generally considered to be the least likely type of terrorist group to use NBC weapons. Many secular groups focus on a narrowly defined target set, which typically includes political and military targets. The primary goal of secular right-wing terrorists is to replace the liberal democratic state with some form of national socialist or fascist regime. The other defining feature of the majority of right-wing groups is their racism. Yet right-wing violence is not completely random or indiscriminate. Many groups that are predominantly religious in character also pursue political objectives. Ethno-nationalist groups and racist groups on the far right differ from other secular groups in that their target set also includes specific ethnic communities. The principal goal of the majority of secular and ethno-nationalist groups is the objective of winning popular and political support. Because committing indiscriminate mass casualty attacks is not a common tactic of most secular groups, they should theoretically have limited interest in procuring and using such weapons. A disincentive to using NBC weapons is that at the operational level, terrorists are unfamiliar with using NBC weapons and their effects can be unpredictable. Disincentives are strongest in respect of nonracist secular groups and indiscriminate mass casualty attacks. In all other circumstances, other considerations may override them. 34 notes