Structural Covariates of Violent Crime Rates in Germany: Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Kreise

• NCJ Number: 244485
• Journal: Justice Quarterly Volume: 30 Issue: 6 Dated: December 2013 Pages: 1015-1041
• Author(s): Steven F. Messner; Raymond H. C. Teske Jr.; Robert D. Baller; Helmut Thome
• Date Published: December 2013
• Length: 27 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom

Annotation

This research explores spatial patterns across Kreise (districts)in Germany.

Abstract

This research applies the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression modeling to explain variation in robbery and assault rates across 413 districts or "Kreise" in Germany. The findings from ESDA reveal a distinct clustering of low rates in southern Germany, especially for robbery. The results of the spatial regression analyses indicate that for the nation at large, Kreise with high robbery and assault rates tend to be those with comparatively high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and a more urbanized environment, findings consistent with those commonly reported with data for areal units in the USA. The authors also observe net regional effects for the south in the regression models that pose puzzles for further inquiry into the German case, and "null effects" of the eastern region that have implications for more general debates of the potentially criminogenic consequences of the transition to market economies. Abstract published by arrangement with Taylor and Francis.