SUBSTITUTION AMONG CRIMES AND THE QUESTION OF DETERRENCE - AN INDIRECT UTILITY FUNCTION APPROACH TO THE SUPPLY OF LEGAL AND ILLEGAL ACTIVITY (FROM ECONOMIC MODELS OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR, 1978, BY J M HEINEKE - SEE NCJ-61013)

• NCJ Number: 61017
• Author(s): J M HEINEKE
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 57 pages
• Grant Number(s): 75-NI-99-0123
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice; US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Corporate Author: North-Holland Publishing Co
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: Netherlands

Annotation

ECONOMETRIC METHODS WERE USED TO ESTIMATE A SYSTEM OF SUPPLY EQUATIONS FOR THE ACTIVITIES OF BURGLARY,LARCENY, ROBBERY, AND LEGAL WORK. CRIME AND PRISON SENTENCE DATA FROM MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES WERE EMPLOYED IN THE EQUATIONS.

Abstract

GOALS OF THE STUDY WERE TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF SUBSTITUTABILITY OR COMPLEMENTARITY AMONG THESE ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF INCOME AND TO ASSESS SYSTEMWIDE RESPONSES,TO CHANGES IN EXPECTED RETURNS AND COSTS IN TERMS OF PARTICIPATION IN LEGAL OR ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES. THE MODEL USED AN INDIRECT UTILITY FUNCTION BEGINNING WITH AN INDIVIDUAL'S PROBLEM OF ALLOCATING TIME AND INCOME AMONG LEGAL AND ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES AND CONSUMPTION POSSIBILITIES. FROM THIS, AN IMPLIED SYSTEM OF ACTIVITY SUPPLY AND COMMODITY DEMAND EQUATIONS WERE DERIVED USING RESULTS FROM MODERN DUALITY THEORY. PUBLISHED AND UNPUBLISHED CRIME DATA FROM THE FBI AND PRISON SENTENCE DATA FROM 1967 THROUGH 1972 AIDED IN ESTIMATING A FOUR-EQUATION AGGREGATE SYSTEM. THREE SEPARATE MODELS WERE ESTIMATED, CORRESPONDING TO NONHOMOTHETIC, HOMOTHETIC, AND ADDITIVE PREFERENCES. RESULTS INDICATED THAT LEGAL WORK IS VIEWED AS AN ALTERNATIVE INCOME-GENERATING ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH A POOR ALTERNATIVE TO CRIME. FINDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT INCREASES IN MEAN WEALTH WILL REDUCE PROPERTY CRIME, AND POLICY CHANGES TO REDUCE GROSS INCOME FROM PROPERTY CRIMES WILL HAVE A GREATER DETERRENT EFFECT THAN WILL POLICY CHANGES AFFECTING EXPECTED LOSSES FROM IMPRISONMENT. FURTHER RESEARCH IS RECOMMENDED. TABLES, FOOTNOTES, AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE INCLUDED. FOR THE COMPLETE VOLUME OF WHICH THIS STUDY IS A PART, SEE NCJ-61013. (CFW)