NCJ Number
34954
Date Published
1976
Length
26 pages
Annotation
THE ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPPLY OF OFFENSES (OFFENSE RATE) DEPENDS UPON THE VARIOUS RISKS AND COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, EXPECTED GAINS, AND VARIOUS DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOLOGICAL FACTORS.
Abstract
THIS STUDY RESUBMITS THE ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME TO EMPIRICAL TEST USING A DIFFERENT DATA BASE. UNPUBLISHED POLICE AND JUDICIAL STATISTICS BY CENSUS DIVISION AREAS IN ONTARIO FOR 1971 ARE USED FOR THE CRIME VARIABLES. CENSUS DATA IS USED FOR ALL OTHER VARIABLES. TESTED IS THE EFFECT INCARCERATION PROSPECTS (AS MEASURED BY SENTENCE LENGTHS) HAS UPON THE LEVEL OF AND THE DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF PROPERTY CRIME. A MATHEMATICAL EQUATION OF THE LEVEL OF PROPERTY CRIME IS PROJECTED IN WHICH THE LEVEL OF CRIME IS DEPENDENT UPON AN AGGREGATE OF THE MEAN SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY OF APPREHENSION BY THE POLICE, THE MEAN SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION, THE MEAN EXPECTED SENTENCE LENGTH, AND THE MEAN EXPECTED GAINS FROM CRIME. THE DATA USED TO REPRESENT THESE VARIABLES - CLEARANCE RATES, CONVICTION RATES, SENTENCES HANDED DOWN DURING THE STUDY PERIOD, AND THE 'VICTIM STOCK' AS MEASURED BY RENTAL RATES FOR HOUSING SERVICES - ARE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL. THE PROPERTY CRIMES INVESTIGATED ARE ROBBERY, THEFT, BREAK AND ENTER, AND FRAUD. STUDY FINDINGS GENERALLY, SUPPORT THE ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME, BUT NO EVIDENCE WAS FOUND TO SUGGEST THE EXISTENCE OF A DETERRENT EFFECT OF INCARCERATION, EVEN THOUGH SEVERAL ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF THE EXPECTED COST OF PUNISHMENT TO A PROSPECTIVE OFFENDER ARE EMPLOYED. A TWO-PAGE REFERENCE LIST IS PROVIDED.