SYSTEM DYNAMICS EVALUATION OF ALTERNATE CRIME CONTROL POLICIES - AN ALASKAN VIEWPOINT

• NCJ Number: 48282
• Journal: Justice System Journal Volume: 3 Issue: 3 Dated: (SPRING 1978) Pages: 281-287
• Author(s): M P MARTIN
• Date Published: 1978
• Length: 7 pages
• Corporate Author: Institute for Court Management
• Publication Format: Article
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

PREDICTIONS DERIVED FROM A MATHEMATICAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL ARE COMPARED WITH THE ACTUAL EFFECTS OF A STATEWIDE PROHIBITION OF PLEA NEGOTIATIONS IN ALASKA.

Abstract

THE MODEL USED WAS DEVELOPED ON THE BASIS OF SIMULATION RESEARCH ON THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM IN WASHINGTON D.C. ACCORDING TO THE MODEL THE ELIMINATION OF PLEA BARGAINING WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRETRIAL DISMISSAL RATES, A DECREASE IN CONVICTION RATES, AN INCREASE IN CRIME RATES, A TRIPLING OF TRIAL THROUGHOUT RATES, AND AN INCREASE IN CASES AWAITING TRIAL. TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES IN SIZE, RACIAL COMPOSITION, AND OTHER VARIABLES WHICH DISTINGUISH THE WASHINGTON SITUATION FROM THAT IN ALASKA, ONLY DATA FROM FELONY AND MISDEMEANOR CASES IN ANCHORAGE WERE ANALYZED. PREDICTIONS WERE COMPARED WITH THE RELEVANT COURT DATA FOR THE PREELIMINATION PERIOD OF 1974 AND 1975 AND THE IMPACT PERIOD OF 1976 AND 1977. CONTRARY TO MODEL PREDICTION, DISMISSAL RATES FOR FELONIES FOLLOWED THE PATTERN OF PREELIMINATION YEARS AND DECREASED. WHILE DISMISSAL RATES INCREASED FOR MISDEMEANORS, THIS IS ALSO IN KEEPING WITH THE PREELIMINATION TREND. AGAIN, CONTRARY TO PREDICTION, BOTH FELONY AND MISDEMEANOR CONVICTIONS INCREASED DURING THE IMPACT PERIOD. WHILE THE PERIOD IS TOO SHORT TO ADEQUATELY TEST THE IMPACT OF PLEA BARGAINING ELIMINATION ON CRIME RATES, THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN FELONY FILINGS DURING THE IMPACT PERIOD. AS PREDICTED, TRIAL THROUGHOUT RATES DID INCREASE, BUT THERE WAS A DOUBLING RATHER THAN A TRIPLING OF THE RATES. WHILE THERE WAS A DECREASE IN AVERAGE DAYS TO DISPOSITION FOR FELONIES FOLLOWING ELIMINATION OF PLEA BARGAINING, THE AVERAGE TIME FOR DISPOSITION OF MISDEMEANOR CASES INCRASED BY 246 PERCENT BETWEEN 1974 1977. FACTOR NOT INCLUDED IN THE MODEL. BUT OF GREAT IMPACT, HAS BEEN A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN APPEALS SINCE THE ELIMINATION OF PLEA BARGAINING. IN ADDITION, CALENDERING PROCEDURES HAVE BEEN CHANGED OR TIGHTENED AND STRICTER CONTINUANCE POLICIES HAVE BEEN INSTITUTED. POSSIBLE FACTORS AFFECTING THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL PREDICTIONS AND THE ACTUAL ALASKAN EXPERIENCE ARE DISCUSSED, AND THE UTILITY OF THE MODEL IS BRIEFLY EXAMINED. REFERENCE NOTES ARE INCLUDED. (JAP)