NCJ Number
48280
Journal
Justice System Journal Volume: 3 Issue: 3 Dated: (SPRING 1978) Pages: 242-263
Date Published
1978
Length
22 pages
Annotation
USING INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS, A MODEL OF A MUNICIPAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM IS CONSTRUCTED, AND THE MODEL IS USED TO TEST THE EFFECTS OF VARIOUS INTERVENTION STRATEGIES ON SYSTEM PERFORMANCE.
Abstract
WASHINGTON, D.C., IS THE FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS MODEL OF A MUNICIPAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS IS AN ANALYTIC TECHNIQUE THAT CAN BE USED TO SIMULATE THE CHANGES WITHIN A SYSTEM THAT TAKE PLACE OVER TIME. THE GENERAL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION CONCENTRATES ON THE INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCE GROWTH, FLUCTUATION, AND CHANGE. THESE INTERACTIONS ARE TRANSLATED INTO A SET OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WHOSE SOLUTION IS COMPUTED INCREMENTALLY, FROM ONE PERIOD IN TIME TO THE NEXT. FOR THE PURPOSE OF MODELING, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE SYSTEM'S BEHAVIOR IS PRODUCED BY A COMBINATION OF INTERACTING COMPONENTS THAT LIE WITHIN AN ARBITRARY BOUNDARY. THE BASIC BUILDING BLOCK WITHIN THIS BOUNDARY IS THE FEEDBACK LOOP, A PATH COUPLING DECISION, ACTION, LEVEL (OR CONDITION) OF THE SYSTEM, AND INFORMATION, WITH THE PATH ULTIMATELY CLOSING ON THE DECISION POINT. THE CRIME RATE IN INTERACTION WITH THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AS IT CHANGES THROUGH INTERVENTION STRATEGIES IS USED AS THE SUBJECT OF THIS MODEL. THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CRIME RATE INCREASES LINEARLY WITH TIME WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEARLY LINEAR GROWTH IN THE CRIME RATE REPORTED IN WASHINGTON, D.C., BETWEEN 1972 AND 1975. IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE OPERATIONS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND THE DYNAMICS OF CRIME ARE MUCH MORE COMPLEX THAN HAS BEEN ASSUMED FOR THE PURPOSES OF ILLUSTRATING THE USE OF THE MODEL. THE INTERVENTION STRATEGIES OF THE ELIMINATION OF FELONY PLEA BARGAINING AND THE RESTRICTION OF BAIL ARE USED TO ILLUSTRATE THE OPERATION OF THE MODEL. THE MODEL INDICATED THAT THE ELIMINATION OF PLEA BARGAINING OFFERS LITTLE PROMISE OF EITHER A REDUCTION IN CRIME OR AN IMPROVEMENT IN COURT EFFICIENCY. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RESTRICTED BAIL, ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD, ACCORDING TO THE MODEL, REDUCE CRIME BY 24 PERCENT BY 1982, WHILE THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF CONVICTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE THEIR CORRESPONDING REFERENCES. THE JAIL CAPACITY REQUIRED TO HANDLE THE INFLUX OF PRETRIAL DETAINEES IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE 83 PERCENT ABOVE ITS 1976 LEVEL. THE MODEL PROVIDES FOR THIS PREDICTION OF RESULTS OF SPECIFIC CHANGES IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM PRIOR TO THEIR IMPLEMENTATION, THUS MAKING IT A VALUABLE TOOL FOR DECISIONMAKING AND LONG-RANGE PLANNING. GRAPHS ARE USED TO ILLUSTRATE THE OPERATION OF THE MODEL. (RCB)