Terrorist Organization Typologies and the Probability of a Boomerang Effect

• NCJ Number: 222782
• Journal: Studies in Conflict & Terrorism Volume: 31 Issue: 4 Dated: April 2008 Pages: 269-283
• Author(s): Boaz Ganor
• Date Published: April 2008
• Length: 15 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Research (Theoretical)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This paper proposes a typology that facilitates the analysis of terrorist organizations' behavior and the forecasting of their reactions when they are attacked by countries responding to terrorist attacks on their citizens (the "boomerang" effect).

Abstract

The proposed typology sharpens distinctions between terrorist organizations based on these characteristics: intended target of an attack; motives for terror; size of the organization; extent of public support for the organization; characteristics of the organization's decisionmaking process; extent of its independence or subordination; its financial state; its arena of operation; its area of deployment; its control of autonomous territory; its demands; its seniority; its status of organizational development; its activities; and its structure. This typology can be used to place terrorist groups into one of four classifications, which indicate the likelihood of its attacking a particular country within a specific time and context, based on the organization's motivation and operational capability. The four classifications are organizations that do not have the motivation to execute an attack at a given time; organizations that do not have the operational capability to execute an attack at a given time; organizations that have both operational capability and motivation for an attack, but not the operational capability to launch an attack of the size they are motivated to mount; and organizations with operational capability for a significant attack, but lack the motivation for such an attack. There could be an organization that lacks both the motivation and operational capability for a terrorist attack, but this would make it a legitimate political group rather than a terrorist organization. The author provides an example of how the proposed typology could be used as a tool for examining if and which Palestinian terrorist organizations pose a significant threat to Israel within a specific time and context. 32 notes