NCJ Number
48196
Date Published
1978
Length
13 pages
Annotation
A MARKOV PROCESS IS PRESENTED TO OBSERVE THE EFFECTS OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICIES ON TRANSITIONS OF A SET OF PERSONS BETWEEN THE CIVILIAN, PRISONER, PAROLEE, AND PROBATIONER STATES. SOCIAL GOALS ARE DISCUSSED.
Abstract
IN THE 19TH CENTURY, SOCIAL PHILOSOPHERS ARGUED OVER CRIMINAL JUSTICE GOALS WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE RESULTS OF VARIOUS CRIMINAL JUSTICE POLICIES ON THE RATES OF RECIDIVISM OR ON INDIVIDUAL LIBERTIES. IN THE 20TH CENTURY, MUCH DEBATE HAS CENTERED ON EFFECTIVE REHABILITATION AND TREATMENT AND INDIVIDUAL LIBERTIES WITHOUT CONSIDERATION OF SOCIAL COSTS AND GOALS. THIS IS AN ATTEMPT TO STUDY MAXIMUM UTILIZATION OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE RESOURCES IN A SOCIAL UTILITY CONTEXT. AN ABSORBING MARKOV CHAIN IS POSTULATED TO MEASURE THE MOVEMENT OF AN INDIVIDUAL THROUGH THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. THE MODEL ASSUMES THAT THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES ARE A FUNCTION OF SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FELON TREATMENT PROCESS. AN EQUATION RELATES EXPECTED EARNINGS OF AN INDIVIDUAL IN BOTH LICIT AND ILLICIT ACTIVITIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, TIME SPENT IN PRISON, EDUCATION, AND EXPERIENCE. AN 'EFFECTIVENESS OF PUNISHMENT' FACTOR FOCUSES ON THE CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT AND THE TIME ELAPSED BETWEEN ARREST AND PUNISHMENT. THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL PRESSURES ARE DISCUSSED. THESE PRESSURES PLACE SIGNIFICANT CONSTRAINTS ON CRIMINAL CORRECTIONS TECHNOLOGY, IF THE PUNISHMENT IS PERCEIVED AS TOO HARSH A JURY MAY BE UNWILLING TO CONVICT; WHEREAS, IF A PUNISHMENT IS SEEN AS INSUFFICIENT, PRESSURE WILL BE PUT ON THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM TO INCREASE IT. THE QUESTION OF CIVIL RIGHTS FOR FELONS IS SIGNIFICANT AS IS THE QUESTION OF LIBERTY FOR THOSE ACCUSED BUT NOT YET TRIED. SECURITY FOR SOCIETY, EQUALITY OF LAW ENFORCEMENT, AND EQUALITY OF TREATMENT OF THOSE CONVICTED ARE ALSO 'HIGHER ORDER' QUESTIONS WHICH MUST BE CONSIDERED WHEN ASSESSING THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. NOTES ARE PROVIDED. (GLR)